Prediction interval in random-effects meta-analysis

A prediction interval is defined as the interval within which the effect size of a new study would fall if this study was selected at random from the same population of the studies already included in the meta-analysis. Therefore, a prediction interval reflects the uncertainty we expect in the summary effect if a new study is included in the meta-analysis. Prediction intervals shall be reported routinely alongside the summary effect size and 95% confidence interval (CI) thereof. Depending on the extent of heterogeneity, prediction intervals are wider than the 95% CI of the summary effect size. Note that in a meta-analysis with few studies (eg, fewer than 5 studies), the prediction interval may be particularly imprecise, resulting from an imprecise estimation of the summary effect size and heterogeneity parameter.

Having estimated the population mean effect size M , its variance V M , and the variation of the true effects (ie, heterogeneity) T 2 , we can calculate the lower and upper limits of (1βˆ’ a )% prediction interval using the following formulas, respectively:

<SPAN role=presentation tabIndex=0 id=MathJax-Element-1-Frame class=MathJax style="POSITION: relative" data-mathml='LLpred=M−ta,k−2·T2+VM’>πΏπΏπ‘π‘Ÿπ‘’π‘‘=π‘€βˆ’π‘‘π‘Ž,π‘˜βˆ’2·𝑇2+π‘‰π‘€β€Ύβ€Ύβ€Ύβ€Ύβ€Ύβ€Ύβ€Ύβ€Ύβ€ΎβˆšLLpred=Mβˆ’ta,kβˆ’2Β·T2+VM
LLpred=Mβˆ’ta,kβˆ’2Β·T2+VM
<SPAN role=presentation tabIndex=0 id=MathJax-Element-2-Frame class=MathJax style="POSITION: relative" data-mathml='ULpred=M+ta,k−2·T2+VM’>π‘ˆπΏπ‘π‘Ÿπ‘’π‘‘=𝑀+π‘‘π‘Ž,π‘˜βˆ’2·𝑇2+π‘‰π‘€β€Ύβ€Ύβ€Ύβ€Ύβ€Ύβ€Ύβ€Ύβ€Ύβ€ΎβˆšULpred=M+ta,kβˆ’2Β·T2+VM
ULpred=M+ta,kβˆ’2Β·T2+VM
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May 12, 2020 | Posted by in Orthodontics | Comments Off on Prediction interval in random-effects meta-analysis
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